Weekly Market Commentary (for the week ending 7/18/25)

Rates UP Again this week, lower benefit amounts next week!

The 10YR CMT was up again this week, and as a result, we will see another increase in the 10YR CMT for next week. This increase will result in a DECREASE to PRINCIPAL LIMITS and BENEFIT AMOUNTS next week!!

The 10YR CMT currently sits at 4.39% for this week, and we should see an increase of 6-8 bps in the Expected Rate next week! This will have a NEGATIVE IMPACT on the Expected Rate, and will result in LOWER Principal Limits and Benefit Amounts again next week!!

We had lots of economic data come out this week indicating that inflation numbers continue to temper and that the job market remains healthy.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers came in Tuesday just above expectations with Headline CPI at 2.7% versus expectations of 2.6%; and Core CPI, excluding food and energy, coming in at 2.9% versus 2.8% last month. Wednesday, we got updated Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers and they came in unchanged from last month with Headline PPI at 2.3% (lowest since September, 2024) and Core PPI at 2.6%, down from 3.2% in May. And yesterday, we got updated jobs numbers, with new jobless claims falling to 221,000 this past week, below expectations of over 232,000.

Most analysts believe that the stagnant inflation numbers and the resilient jobs market will keep the FED on hold again at its July meeting, giving them more time to assess data and their views on the impact of recent and upcoming tariffs. But, the most recent PPI numbers also have analysts believing that there are still chances and room for the FED to begin cutting interest rates later this year.

This week, the 10YR CMT Index is 4.39%. Here is what the 10YR CMT has done this week, so we will see another INCREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This increase WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT on Principal Limits!

     10 YR CMT
  7/14/25    7/15/25     7/16/25    7/17/25    7/18/25 (Intraday)

    4.43        4.50          4.46        4.47        4.43               

Based on the data from this week, we will see an INCREASE in the Expected Rate of 6-8 bps for next week. This INCREASE will have a NEGATIVE IMPACT on the Principal Limits and Benefit Amounts for next week. So, if you have applications to take, we would suggest TAKING YOUR APPLICATIONS NOW BEFORE RATES GO UP FURTHER NEXT WEEK, SO THAT YOU CAN "LOCK-IN" THE HIGHER BENEFIT AMOUNTS NOW BEFORE THEY DECREASE NEXT WEEK!! As usual, new rates for next week will take effect on Tuesday, 7/22/25 and beyond! And, as always, we are simply providing this data to you, so that YOU can continue to make the decisions that best suit your business based on the information you have!

If you have questions about this, please let me know right away!!! Thanks for the partnership and Good Selling!!!



Bob