Weekly Market Commentary (For the Week Ending 10/3/25)

Rates Down This Week, But No Changes to Benefit Amounts!

The 10YR CMT moved back down slightly this week, so we will see a small DECREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. But, this will result in NO CHANGE to PRINCIPAL LIMITS and BENEFIT AMOUNTS next week!!

The 10YR CMT currently sits at 4.16% for this week, and we will see a decrease of 3-5 bps in the Expected Rate next week! However, this will have NO IMPACT on the Expected Rate and will result in the SAME Benefit Amounts next week!

As you all know, the Federal Government officially shutdown as of October 1 and will remain shutdown until Congress comes to agreement on a resolution to continue funding the government. Most non-essential government employees are being furloughed and non-essential services are on hold or delayed until funding is restored.

As a result of the shutdown, key labor market data that was due out this week will be delayed. Analysts were expecting the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.3% with a modest uptick in new jobless claims. The labor market does appear to be cooling but not collapsing as unemployment is still relatively low and wage growth continues to outpace inflation.

While Government Shutdowns historically have had little lasting impacts on the overall economy, the delays caused in economic reporting will give the FED less data on the overall health of the economy as they head towards their next meeting later this month. So, we are in a wait and see mode for what the FED may do this month in regards to interest rates knowing that they will have less transparency about the overall health of the economy.

This week, the 10YR CMT Index is 4.16%. Here is what the 10YR CMT has done this week, so we will see a DECREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This decrease WILL HAVE NO IMPACT on Benefit Amounts!

10YR CMT               

9/29/25     9/30/25    10/1/25    10/2/25     10/3/25 (Intraday)

  4.15           4.16            4.12       4.10            4.11   

Based on the data from this week, we will see a DECREASE in the Expected Rate of 3-5 bps for next week. This DECREASE will have NO IMPACT on the Principal Limits and Benefit Amounts for next week. So, if you have applications or closings soon, there will be NO DIFFERENCE IN BENEFIT AMOUNTS FOR YOUR CUSTOMERS IF YOU TAKE APPLICATIONS NOW OR WAIT UNTIL NEXT WEEK!  As usual, new rates for next week will take effect on Tuesday, 10/7/25 and beyond! As always, we are simply providing this data to you, so that YOU can continue to make the decisions that best suit your business based on the information you have!

If you have questions about this, please let me know right away!!! Thanks for the partnership and Good Selling!!!