Weekly Market Commentary (For the Week Ending 10/31/25)

The 10YR CMT edged back up this week, so we will see an INCREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. But, this will result in NO CHANGE TO BENEFIT AMOUNTS next week!!

The 10YR CMT currently sits at 4.00% for this week, and we will see an increase of 4-6 bps in the Expected Rate next week! This will have NO IMPACT on the Expected Rate and will result in the SAME Benefit Amounts next week!

It’s a Friday Happy Halloween to everyone today!

As you know, we did get another 25bps rate cut from the FED yesterday, but the news coming from Chair Powell pushed the 10YR Treasury back up over 4%. The cause of this upward move to the 10YR primarily comes from Chair Powell’s comments stressing that another cut in December is not guaranteed, pushing the market odds of another December rate cut to less than 70%. This decision was not unanimous, as one FED Governor pushed for a larger cut, while another Governor voted to keep rates unchanged. This was the first split decision with dissents on both sides of a rate decision since 2019.

Further complicating matters is the ongoing Government Shutdown, now at 31 days and counting, which has created a data vacuum, making it more difficult for the FED to gauge true economic conditions. Chair Powell described the situation as “driving through fog, you slow down.” This signals continued caution by the FED, but many view these comments as an effort to preserve flexibility and manage market expectations as opposed to a prolonged pause as we move into November and December.

This week, the 10YR CMT Index is 4.00%. Here is what the 10YR CMT has done this week, so we will see an INCREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This increase WILL HAVE NO IMPACT on Benefit Amounts!

10YR CMT

10/27/25 10/28/25 10/29/25 10/30/25 10/31/25 (Intraday)

4.01 3.99 4.08 4.11 4.08

Based on the data from this week, we will see an INCREASE in the Expected Rate of 4-6 bps for next week. This INCREASE will have NO IMPACT on Benefit Amounts for next week. So, if you have applications or closings soon, there will be NO DIFFERENCE IN BENEFIT AMOUNTS FOR YOUR CUSTOMERS IF YOU TAKE APPLICATIONS NOW OR WAIT UNTIL NEXT WEEK TO APP OR CLOSE! As usual, new rates for next week will take effect on Tuesday, 11/4/25 and beyond! As always, we are providing this data to you, so that YOU can continue to make the decisions that best suit your business based on the information you have!

If you have questions about this, please let me know! Thanks for the partnership and Good Selling!!!

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