Weekly Market Commentary (For the Week Ending 10/17/25)

Bob Garczewski • October 17, 2025

Rates Down This Week, Higher Benefit Amounts Next Week!

The 10YR CMT moved down this week, so we will see a significant DECREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This will result in HIGHER BENEFIT AMOUNTS next week!!

 

The 10YR CMT currently sits at 4.13% for this week, and we will see a decrease of 11-13 bps in the Expected Rate next week! This will have a POSITIVE IMPACT on the Expected Rate and will result in HIGHER Benefit Amounts next week!

 

As the Federal shutdown continues, the resulting data blackout has the markets guessing. We have now missed reports on retail sales, initial claims, CPI and PPI reports this week alone. With official numbers lacking, the markets are now relying on survey data and private sector indicators. Markets are betting that the FED will respond to this increased uncertainty around the economy by cutting rates, and many FED members are not discouraging this view.

 

Earlier this week, Chair Powell did hint at the possibility of another rate cut at its next meeting on October 29th, part of the basis for the decreasing 10YR Treasury this week. He also reiterated that the path ahead is not straightforward, as inflation remains above their 2% target. However, there is still considerable downside risk as the labor markets do indicate a clear slowdown.

 

There are few signs coming from Washington that this gridlock will end anytime as we stretch into the third week of the shutdown. The record shutdown is 35 days, and the risks of this shutdown extending beyond that record are increasing as the repeated efforts in the Senate to end the shutdown have failed.

 

This week, the 10YR CMT Index is 4.13%. Here is what the 10YR CMT has done this week, so we will see a DECREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This decrease WILL HAVE a POSITIVE IMPACT on Benefit Amounts!

 

10YR CMT               

10/13/25     10/14/25    10/15/25    10/16/25     10/17/25 (Intraday)

   ----             4.03           4.05        3.99          4.00     

 

Based on the data from this week, we will see a DECREASE in the Expected Rate of 11-13 bps for next week. This DECREASE will have a POSITIVE IMPACT on Benefit Amounts for next week. So, if you have applications or closings soon, we would suggest WAITING UNTIL NEXT WEEK TO CLOSE OR TAKE APPLICATIONS SO THAT YOU CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOWER RATES AND “LOCK-IN” HIGHER BENEFIT AMOUNTS FOR YOUR CUSTOMERS!  As usual, new rates for next week will take effect on Tuesday, 10/21/25 and beyond! As always, we are providing this data to you, so that YOU can continue to make the decisions that best suit your business based on the information you have!

 

If you have questions about this, please let me know!! Thanks for the partnership and Good Selling!!!


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As most of you know by now, the Federal Government was shut down effective October 1 and will remain shut down until Congress comes to agreement to continue funding the government. We will keep you updated as we learn and hear more here at SimpleReverse, but in the meantime, what does this mean for the Reverse Mortgage industry? 1. First, we want to assure you that SimpleReverse plans to continue operating “business as usual!” We should not see a major impact to our business, assuming this shutdown is resolved quickly. 2. However, you can expect to see the following pieces of our business impacted during a shutdown: a. FHA Case Assignments & Case Transfers – FHA Connection will continue functioning to issue case numbers since this is an automated system. (However, if there are technical issues with the system or direct FHA involvement is required, expect it to take longer to get them addressed/fixed.) b. FHA Single Unit Condo Approvals – This process will be delayed during a shutdown. Expect longer turn times for SUA Condo Approvals. c. IRS Tax Transcripts – If Tax Transcripts are required as part of a loan approval, expect delays in receipt of these transcripts. d. SSA-89 Requests – Verification of SSNs through this process could be delayed during a shutdown. e. Change Requests for FEMA Flood Maps – If necessary, this process could be delayed during a shutdown. Expect longer turn times for flood map change requests. We will continue to monitor the shutdown of the Federal Government and the potential impacts to our business should it continue for a lengthy time period and we will keep you abreast of any changes or additional impacts that we could experience as a result.  As always, thank you for your continued business and partnership. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

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