Weekly Market Commentary (For the Week Ending 10/17/25)

Rates Down This Week, Higher Benefit Amounts Next Week!

The 10YR CMT moved down this week, so we will see a significant DECREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This will result in HIGHER BENEFIT AMOUNTS next week!!

The 10YR CMT currently sits at 4.13% for this week, and we will see a decrease of 11-13 bps in the Expected Rate next week! This will have a POSITIVE IMPACT on the Expected Rate and will result in HIGHER Benefit Amounts next week!

As the Federal shutdown continues, the resulting data blackout has the markets guessing. We have now missed reports on retail sales, initial claims, CPI and PPI reports this week alone. With official numbers lacking, the markets are now relying on survey data and private sector indicators. Markets are betting that the FED will respond to this increased uncertainty around the economy by cutting rates, and many FED members are not discouraging this view.

Earlier this week, Chair Powell did hint at the possibility of another rate cut at its next meeting on October 29^th, part of the basis for the decreasing 10YR Treasury this week. He also reiterated that the path ahead is not straightforward, as inflation remains above their 2% target. However, there is still considerable downside risk as the labor markets do indicate a clear slowdown.

There are few signs coming from Washington that this gridlock will end anytime as we stretch into the third week of the shutdown. The record shutdown is 35 days, and the risks of this shutdown extending beyond that record are increasing as the repeated efforts in the Senate to end the shutdown have failed.

This week, the 10YR CMT Index is 4.13%. Here is what the 10YR CMT has done this week, so we will see a DECREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This decrease WILL HAVE a POSITIVE IMPACT on Benefit Amounts!

10YR CMT               

10/13/25     10/14/25    10/15/25    10/16/25     10/17/25 (Intraday)

   ----             4.03           4.05        3.99          4.00     

Based on the data from this week, we will see a DECREASE in the Expected Rate of 11-13 bps for next week. This DECREASE will have a POSITIVE IMPACT on Benefit Amounts for next week. So, if you have applications or closings soon, we would suggest WAITING UNTIL NEXT WEEK TO CLOSE OR TAKE APPLICATIONS SO THAT YOU CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOWER RATES AND “LOCK-IN” HIGHER BENEFIT AMOUNTS FOR YOUR CUSTOMERS!  As usual, new rates for next week will take effect on Tuesday, 10/21/25 and beyond! As always, we are providing this data to you, so that YOU can continue to make the decisions that best suit your business based on the information you have!

If you have questions about this, please let me know!! Thanks for the partnership and Good Selling!!!