Weekly Market Commentary (For the Week Ending 11/7/25)

Bob Garczewski • November 7, 2025

Rates Up This Week, Lower Benefit Amounts Next Week!

The 10YR CMT continued moving back up this week, so we will see an INCREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This will result in LOWER BENEFIT AMOUNTS next week!!

 

The 10YR CMT currently sits at 4.06% for this week, and we will see another increase of 4-6 bps in the Expected Rate next week! This will have a NEGATIVE IMPACT on the Expected Rate and will result in LOWER Benefit Amounts next week!

 

With the government shutdown now in week six and officially the longest shutdown in US history, the markets are increasingly turning to private data to try to assess economic trends and the state of the economy in the absence of federal reporting numbers. Based on the various reports analysts are viewing, the overall theme is that the data supports a stable economy that should strengthen through 2026 but could experience a soft patch the longer the shutdown continues.

 

Bond markets are edging downward at the end of the week based on expectations that the FED will continue its easing cycle in order to boost a softening labor market. Markets are beginning to price in one more rate cut this year, with expectations of two more next year. The FED is predicting a slower pace of easing, but many analysts believe the potential for economic momentum to slow, based in part by the government shutdown, will force the FED to remain on track for three more cuts through next year.

 

This week, the 10YR CMT Index is 4.06%. Here is what the 10YR CMT has done this week, so we will see an INCREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This increase WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT on Benefit Amounts!

 

10YR CMT               

11/3/25     11/4/25    11/5/25    11/6/25     11/7/25 (Intraday)

   4.13         4.10        4.17         4.11          4.07 

 

Based on the data from this week, we will see an INCREASE in the Expected Rate of 4-6 bps for next week. This INCREASE will have a NEGATIVE IMPACT on Benefit Amounts for next week. So, if you have applications or closings soon, we would suggest TAKING YOUR APPLICATIONS NOW BEFORE RATES GO UP NEXT WEEK SO THAT YOU CAN “LOCK-IN” HIGHER BENEFIT AMOUNTS BEFORE THEY DECREASE NEXT WEEK!  New rates for next week will take effect on Wednesday, 11/12/25 due to the federal Veterans Day holiday! As always, we are providing this data to you, so that YOU can continue to make the decisions that best suit your business based on the information you have!

 

If you have questions about this, please let me know! Thanks for the partnership and Good Selling!!!


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As most of you know by now, the Federal Government was shut down effective October 1 and will remain shut down until Congress comes to agreement to continue funding the government. We will keep you updated as we learn and hear more here at SimpleReverse, but in the meantime, what does this mean for the Reverse Mortgage industry? 1. First, we want to assure you that SimpleReverse plans to continue operating “business as usual!” We should not see a major impact to our business, assuming this shutdown is resolved quickly. 2. However, you can expect to see the following pieces of our business impacted during a shutdown: a. FHA Case Assignments & Case Transfers – FHA Connection will continue functioning to issue case numbers since this is an automated system. (However, if there are technical issues with the system or direct FHA involvement is required, expect it to take longer to get them addressed/fixed.) b. FHA Single Unit Condo Approvals – This process will be delayed during a shutdown. Expect longer turn times for SUA Condo Approvals. c. IRS Tax Transcripts – If Tax Transcripts are required as part of a loan approval, expect delays in receipt of these transcripts. d. SSA-89 Requests – Verification of SSNs through this process could be delayed during a shutdown. e. Change Requests for FEMA Flood Maps – If necessary, this process could be delayed during a shutdown. Expect longer turn times for flood map change requests. We will continue to monitor the shutdown of the Federal Government and the potential impacts to our business should it continue for a lengthy time period and we will keep you abreast of any changes or additional impacts that we could experience as a result.  As always, thank you for your continued business and partnership. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

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