Weekly Market Commentary (For the Week Ending 11/7/25)

Rates Up This Week, Lower Benefit Amounts Next Week!

The 10YR CMT continued moving back up this week, so we will see an INCREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This will result in LOWER BENEFIT AMOUNTS next week!!

The 10YR CMT currently sits at 4.06% for this week, and we will see another increase of 4-6 bps in the Expected Rate next week! This will have a NEGATIVE IMPACT on the Expected Rate and will result in LOWER Benefit Amounts next week!

With the government shutdown now in week six and officially the longest shutdown in US history, the markets are increasingly turning to private data to try to assess economic trends and the state of the economy in the absence of federal reporting numbers. Based on the various reports analysts are viewing, the overall theme is that the data supports a stable economy that should strengthen through 2026 but could experience a soft patch the longer the shutdown continues.

Bond markets are edging downward at the end of the week based on expectations that the FED will continue its easing cycle in order to boost a softening labor market. Markets are beginning to price in one more rate cut this year, with expectations of two more next year. The FED is predicting a slower pace of easing, but many analysts believe the potential for economic momentum to slow, based in part by the government shutdown, will force the FED to remain on track for three more cuts through next year.

This week, the 10YR CMT Index is 4.06%. Here is what the 10YR CMT has done this week, so we will see an INCREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This increase WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT on Benefit Amounts!

10YR CMT               

11/3/25     11/4/25    11/5/25    11/6/25     11/7/25 (Intraday)

   4.13         4.10        4.17         4.11          4.07 

Based on the data from this week, we will see an INCREASE in the Expected Rate of 4-6 bps for next week. This INCREASE will have a NEGATIVE IMPACT on Benefit Amounts for next week. So, if you have applications or closings soon, we would suggest TAKING YOUR APPLICATIONS NOW BEFORE RATES GO UP NEXT WEEK SO THAT YOU CAN “LOCK-IN” HIGHER BENEFIT AMOUNTS BEFORE THEY DECREASE NEXT WEEK!  New rates for next week will take effect on Wednesday, 11/12/25 due to the federal Veterans Day holiday! As always, we are providing this data to you, so that YOU can continue to make the decisions that best suit your business based on the information you have!

If you have questions about this, please let me know! Thanks for the partnership and Good Selling!!!