Weekly Market Commentary (For the Week Ending 9/19/25)

rates up this week, lower benefit amounts next week!

The 10YR CMT moved back up slightly this week, and we will see an INCREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This will result in a DECREASE to PRINCIPAL LIMITS and BENEFIT AMOUNTS next week!!

The 10YR CMT currently sits at 4.05% for this week, and we will see an increase of 3-4 bps in the Expected Rate next week! Unfortunately, this will have a NEGATIVE IMPACT on the Expected Rate and will result in LOWER Principal Limits and Benefit Amounts next week!

As all of you know by now, the FED did lower the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps this week. And with this expected cut already priced into the markets, we have seen a slight uptick in the 10YR Treasury as a result. The good news is that the FED did indicate a shifting in policy, and we could see as many as two more cuts before year end. However, they also stated that they are not on a predetermined path and that economic data, especially labor-market trends, will shape upcoming decisions.

Yesterday’s report on initial unemployment claims fell, providing some encouragement on the jobs front, however, hiring rates remain weak. And with inflation hovering above targets, this puts the FED in a difficult predicament of trying to balance labor markets, with what many analysts view as a potential for accelerating inflation numbers in the short-term as new tariffs are passed through to consumers in the coming months.

Uncertain guidance from the FED around outlook and the appropriate response was the dominant theme after their meeting this week, with the committee’s views split on how much easing would be appropriate in the coming months. The lack of strong guidance could lead to volatility in the coming weeks and months, but the prevailing view still trends toward rates to continue moving lower in the near term as the FED aims to gradually neutralize its policies.

This week, the 10YR CMT Index is 4.05%. Here is what the 10YR CMT has done this week, so we will see an INCREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This increase WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT on Benefit Amounts!

10YR CMT               

9/15/25     9/16/25    9/17/25    9/18/25     9/19/25 (Intraday)

  4.05          4.04       4.06         4.11           4.14   

Based on the data from this week, we will see an INCREASE in the Expected Rate of 3-4 bps for next week. This INCREASE will have a NEGATIVE IMPACT on the Principal Limits and Benefit Amounts for next week. So, if you have applications or closings soon, we would suggest TAKING YOU’RE APPLICATIONS NOW BEFORE RATES GO UP NEXT WEEK SO THAT YOU CAN “LOCK-IN” HIGHER BENEFIT AMOUNTS NOW BEFORE THEY DECREASE NEXT WEEK!  As usual, new rates for next week will take effect on Tuesday, 9/23/25 and beyond! And, as always, we are simply providing this data to you, so that YOU can continue to make the decisions that best suit your business based on the information you have!

If you have questions about this, please let me know right away!!! Thanks for the partnership and Good Selling!!!