Weekly Market Commentary (For the Week Ending 9/12/25)

Rates down this week, significantly higher benefit amounts next week!

The 10YR CMT continued to move down this week, so we will see a BIG DECREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This will result in an INCREASE to PRINCIPAL LIMITS and BENEFIT AMOUNTS next week!!

The 10YR CMT currently sits at 4.19% for this week, and we will see a decrease of 13-15 bps in the Expected Rate next week! This will result in a 2 margin drop in the rate and 2 steps of additional Benefit Amount to the borrower next week!!

We got the last of the new data before the FED meeting next week this week, and as expected, Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers increased to 2.9%, up from 2.7% last month. Core CPI numbers held steady at 3.1%. Jobless claims also rose this month to 263,000, the highest reading in over four years. The unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%. Analysts believe these numbers reflect a cooling labor market but from a position of strength. And, it is also believed that the potential for lower rates and fiscal stimulus should help support the economy in the months ahead.

So, now we just wait for the FED meeting next week to see where things go from here. While inflation remains above the FED’s 2.0% target, with the labor market continuing to slow, the markets are still expecting at least a 25bps cut to rates next week, with the outside possibility of a more nuclear cut of 50bps. Treasury yields have been lower this week, as the market is already pricing in an expected cut of at least 25bps next week. And, based on FED actions and comments next week, we could continue to see yields push down further, especially based on many analysts beliefs that we could now see another 2 rate cuts before year end.

At this point, with all the data in for the FED meeting next week, we just sit back in a wait and see mode to find out what the FED will do, and more importantly, what Chairman Powell might indicate about the FED’s ongoing leanings and outlook for the months ahead!

This week, the 10YR CMT Index is 4.19%. Here is what the 10YR CMT has done this week, so we will see a DECREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This decrease WILL HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT on Benefit Amounts!

10YR CMT               

9/8/25     9/9/25    9/10/25    9/11/25     9/12/25 (Intraday)

  4.05        4.08        4.04        4.01          4.07       

Based on the data from this week, we will see a DECREASE in the Expected Rate of 13-15 bps for next week. This DECREASE will have a POSITIVE IMPACT on the Principal Limits and Benefit Amounts for next week. So, if you have applications or closings soon, we would suggest WAITING UNTIL NEXT WEEK TO CLOSE OR TAKE APPLICATIONS SO THAT YOU CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOWER RATES AND “LOCK-IN” HIGHER BENEFIT AMOUNTS FOR YOUR CUSTOMERS!  As usual, new rates for next week will take effect on Tuesday, 9/16/25 and beyond! And, as always, we are simply providing this data to you, so that YOU can continue to make the decisions that best suit your business based on the information you have!

If you have questions about this, please let me know right away!!! Thanks for the partnership and Good Selling!!!