Weekly Market Commentary (For the Week Ending 9/5/25)

Rates down this week - should be higher benefit amounts next week!

The 10YR CMT continued to move down this week, so we will see a DECREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This could result in an INCREASE to PRINCIPAL LIMITS and BENEFIT AMOUNTS next week!!

The 10YR CMT currently sits at 4.25% for this week, and we should see a decrease of 6-7 bps in the Expected Rate next week! A decrease of 7 bps would have a POSITIVE IMPACT on the Expected Rate, and would result in HIGHER Principal Limits and Benefit Amounts next week!!

Bad news is good news if you are looking to the FED to start cutting interest rates soon. Today’s news that the economy only added 22,000 jobs in August, well below expectations of 75,000; and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% are all signs of slowing job growth. A cooling labor market, but one that isn’t yet falling off a cliff, can all be seen as a catalyst that the FED should and will resume lowering rates later this month. Lowering rates are seen as a lever that should support future economic growth and corporate earnings and would be a welcome sight for the mortgage industry as well.

Next week’s inflation data will now be the key focus as the last hurdle before what is widely seen as a likely 25bps interest rate cut at the FED meeting later this month. Inflation numbers are expected to rise slightly, but Core inflation numbers should remain steady. Increased price pressures are expected to continue building in the coming months as a result of higher tariffs as many companies have been absorbing these increased costs so far, but it’s expected that in the coming months those costs will be passed on to the consumer.

So, if you are a fan of seeing the FED lower interest rates soon, this recent “bad news” on the jobs front could turn into “good news” from the FED on the interest rate front in the near future!

This week, the 10YR CMT Index is 4.25%. Here is what the 10YR CMT has done this week, so we will see a DECREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This decrease SHOULD HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT on Benefit Amounts!

10YR CMT               

9/1/25     9/2/25    9/3/25    9/4/25     9/5/25 (Intraday)

  ----         4.28        4.22        4.17         4.06

Based on the data from this week, we will see a DECREASE in the Expected Rate of 6-7 bps for next week. This DECREASE should have a POSITIVE IMPACT on the Principal Limits and Benefit Amounts for next week. So, if you have applications to take, we would suggest WAITING UNTIL NEXT WEEK TO TAKE YOUR APPLICATIONS SO THAT YOU CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOWER RATES AND “LOCK-IN” HIGHER BENEFIT AMOUNTS FOR YOUR CUSTOMERS!  As usual, new rates for next week will take effect on Tuesday, 9/9/25 and beyond! And, as always, we are simply providing this data to you, so that YOU can continue to make the decisions that best suit your business based on the information you have!

If you have questions about this, please let me know right away!!! Thanks for the partnership and Good Selling!!!