Weekly Market Commentary (For the Week Ending 8/29/25)

rates down this week, no changes to benefit amounts!

The 10YR CMT continued to move down this week, but we will see NO CHANGE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This will result in NO CHANGE to PRINCIPAL LIMITS and BENEFIT AMOUNTS next week!!

The 10YR CMT currently sits at 4.30% for this week, and we should see a decrease of 5-7 bps in the Expected Rate next week! This will have NO IMPACT on the Expected Rate, and will result in the SAME Principal Limits and Benefit Amounts next week!!

The FED’s preferred inflation measure, Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), was released today and came in right in line with expectations. Headline PCE was at 2.6%, in line with last month, and Core PCE came in at 2.9%, slightly higher than last month’s number of 2.8%. Overall, analysts believe we will continue to see some upward pressure to these numbers as a result of higher tariff rates, but they believe inflation rates should stabilize over time at around 2.5%.

After Chairman Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium last week, he did signal that the FED is willing to shift its current policy rate levels; but he did also make clear that the FED is in a tough position of trying to balance potential higher inflation in the coming months while also trying to manage a labor market that is showing early signs of cooling. This is what the markets wanted to hear, and as a result, we have seen treasury yields come down since then.

It is believed that the FED will likely cut rates by 0.25% in September, while also very closely watching the data after that on both inflation numbers and labor market data. Many analysts continue to believe we will still one to two rate cuts this year, followed by one to two more rate cuts next year. Lower rates would cut borrowing costs for both businesses and consumers, which would be supportive of the overall economy.

This week, the 10YR CMT Index is 4.30%. Here is what the 10YR CMT has done this week, so we will see a DECREASE in the 10YR CMT for next week. This decrease WILL HAVE NO IMPACT on Benefit Amounts!

10YR CMT               

8/25/25     8/26/25    8/27/25    8/28/25     8/29/25 (Intraday)

  4.28          4.26        4.24          4.22           4.22   

Based on the data from this week, we will see a DECREASE in the Expected Rate of 5-7 bps for next week. This DECREASE will have NO IMPACT on the Principal Limits and Benefit Amounts for next week. So, if you have applications to take, there will be NO DIFFERENCE IN BENEFIT AMOUNTS FOR YOUR CUSTOMERS IF YOU TAKE APPLICATIONS NOW OR WAIT UNTIL NEXT WEEK TO TAKE YOUR APPLICATIONS!!

With the Labor Day holiday on Monday, new rates for next week will not take effect until Wednesday, 9/2/25 and beyond! And, as always, we are simply providing this data to you, so that YOU can continue to make the decisions that best suit your business based on the information you have!

If you have questions about this, please let me know right away!!! Thanks for the partnership and Good Selling!!!